Dubai registered sale prices: why the median is only a starting point

What the evidence shows

For 2026-08-21 through 2026-09-17, the eligible Dubai sample contains 2,478 registered sales classified as Unit and Existing Properties. The median is AED 1,428 per sqft, while the middle 50% spans AED 1,062 to AED 1,985 per sqft.

Narrowing the sample by DLD area and bedroom category still leaves a visible spread. In Al Barsha South Fourth, the 1 B/R segment contains 185 sales: its median is AED 1,176 per sqft and its middle 50% spans AED 969 to AED 1,366 per sqft. A transaction below the segment median therefore does not, by itself, demonstrate a bargain.

The same window, two levels of detail

The area-and-bedroom example was selected by transaction count, not by price or investment appeal. It is the only such group with a nonmissing bedroom category and at least 100 eligible sales in this window. It illustrates one sufficiently populated segment; it does not establish a pattern for every neighbourhood.

P25 and P75 are the 25th and 75th percentiles; P50 is the median. The interval between them describes the middle 50% of observed transaction prices. It is neither a confidence interval nor a fair-value range for a particular home. Displayed prices are rounded to the nearest AED; the saved snapshot retains unrounded percentiles.

What can explain the spread

The city sample combines locations and bedroom categories. The narrower sample still combines buildings, sizes, floors, views, condition and commercial terms. These differences can contribute to the observed spread, but this calculation does not identify how much each factor explains. Price per sqft adjusts for area arithmetically; it does not make unlike homes equivalent.

Existing Properties is the source registration category used here. It is not an independent inspection of completion, occupancy or condition. The sample does not impose a residential-use or property-subtype filter. The city figures therefore describe eligible Unit records, not a pure apartment index.

How to apply the finding

When testing a quoted price, first compare registered transactions in the same building or project with compatible property type, bedroom category, size and timing. Then check the property's condition and transaction terms. Use the wider area distribution to understand context when close evidence is scarce, and keep that uncertainty visible. A low percentile alone does not support a buy decision, and a high percentile alone does not establish overpricing.

Evidence and reproduction

Evidence date: 2026-09-17. The inclusive observation window is 2026-08-21 to 2026-09-17, covering 28 calendar days. The source load timestamp is 2026-09-18 17:33:16 UTC. This is a cross-sectional distribution with no prior-period comparison; it makes no claim about momentum, future prices, rent, yield or project supply.

Source: Dubai Land Department transactions via Dubai Open Data. Each observation is a distinct transaction ID; 2,478 rows equal 2,478 distinct IDs, and the example has 185 rows and 185 distinct IDs. The query retains a transaction group containing sale, property type Unit and registration type Existing Properties. It requires actual worth above AED 10,000, procedure area above 10 sqm and calculated price between AED 100 and AED 20,000 per sqft, inclusive. Price per sqft equals actual worth divided by the product of procedure area and 10.76391041671 sqft per sqm. Percentiles use PostgreSQL percentile_cont with linear interpolation.

The filters remove implausible values but do not guarantee perfect records or complete market coverage. Registration timing, later revisions and changes in which homes trade can affect the distribution. The official area name and bedroom label are preserved. Home Pulse is independent of DLD and Data Dubai; this study supports due diligence and does not replace a regulated valuation.