Dubai off-plan sales became less concentrated—but activity elsewhere also fell

Look beyond the leading share

For a buyer testing a claim that off-plan activity is spreading across projects, the leading share answers only part of the question. The number of registrations outside that group matters too. Here, both groups recorded fewer sales.

The Dubai Land Department sample contains 12,144 distinct sales across 1–30 September and 1–30 October 2026. Each window covers 30 calendar days. October is a partial month, excluding 31 October; the comparison is not seasonally adjusted.

The five busiest names are selected separately in each window by registration count, not held fixed over time. Each share uses all eligible sales in its period as the denominator and is rounded to one decimal place.

More names did not mean more activity outside the leaders

Recorded project names increased from 739 to 743, while sales outside the leading five fell from 5,427 to 4,849. More names appearing in the records therefore did not translate into more sales across the remainder. Nor is the number of names a count of launches, active developments or available homes.

This is concentration by exact project-name text, not by developer or corporate ownership. Phases may have separate names; spelling differences can split a group. There are no blank names in the sample, but that does not establish consistent project identity.

Launch timing, registration batches and changing project mix could affect the result; the analysis does not establish a cause. A smaller top-five share proves neither lower buyer risk nor better resale prospects. Registrations do not measure unsold inventory, enquiries or time to sell.

Ask for the denominator and the phase

When a sales pitch cites broad market activity, ask which project and phase it refers to, which registration dates support it, and what denominator underlies its market share. Check whether the name is consistent across periods and whether registrations cluster in a short batch. Evidence of broader activity should show what happened outside the leading group as well as its share.

Whether an individual asking price is supported is a separate question. The Home Pulse methodology explains the role of property identity and comparable evidence. This concentration table cannot value a home.

Scope of this November Pulse

Data as of 30 October 2026, from Dubai Land Department transactions via Dubai Open Data. We retain sales-group records classified Unit, Residential and Off-Plan Properties, with registered values above AED 10,000, areas above 10 square metres and calculated prices between AED 100 and AED 20,000 per square foot (sqft), inclusive. Other registration categories and uses are excluded. These filters do not certify that every record is an ordinary arm’s-length sale.

Transaction IDs are unique across the combined sample. Both windows have records on 22 dates; this does not prove complete coverage. Equal calendar lengths do not control registration timing, seasonality or project mix. Later source revisions may change a new extraction. Exact SQL, load timestamps and unrounded results remain in the stored evidence package; this article retains its fixed snapshot.

The result describes observed registrations, not a price forecast, delivery assessment or investment ranking. Home Pulse is independent of Dubai Land Department and Data Dubai.